As fantasy drafts quickly approach, here are some players that I will not be drafting in 2020:
Aaron Jones, RB (Packers):
No Pack No. I get it...Aaron Jones had a career year last season. If I told you your RB1 or RB2 would give you 19 touchdowns again (16 rushing and 3 receiving in 2019), you would draft him in the first round easily. People forget that Aaron Jones had the same amount of touchdowns as the consensus number one pick for this year's draft in Christian McCaffrey. So why am I avoiding Jones in 2020? It's the actions around him that give me pause. First, the Packers used their second round pick on Boston College running back A.J. Dillon. A team with some glaring holes on offense with a running back that totaled 19 touchdowns last year used a second round pick on a running back. This was after trading up in the first round to pick QB Jordan Love, an even more surprising move. It's possible the coaching staff and front office has a view for the team's near future that doesn't include the fantasy stars of 2019. In addition, coach Matt Lafleur has discussed the versatile abilities of his running back crew and what they can bring to the team in 2020. A lot of talk around a committee approach has me uneasy about adding Aaron Jones to my fantasy team at the price I would have to pay to get him (2.03 ADP in a 12 team league).
Julio Jones, WR (Falcons):
Julio Jones is a great wide receiver - arguably the best in the league - he just won't be receiving any love for me in fantasy drafts this year. The reason is pretty simple: I don't want to spend the draft capital on him. Currently, Julio's ADP has him going in drafts at pick #13, which translates to an early second round pick in most leagues. This price is a bit too high for me, and it is not because I don't think he will return value. He will. He's a beast. He finished 6th in receptions and 2nd in yards in 2019. He also had 6 touchdowns in 2019. That is one less than his fellow teammate, Calvin Ridley (7 TDs). Although Ridley's receptions and yards fell short of his Julio's stats, the 2019 season proved to be the beginning of a budding chemistry between Ridley and QB Matt Ryan. Many think this season will be Calvin Ridley's breakout season where he closes the gap between him and Julio. I tend to agree. Currently, Ridley has an ADP of #43 (4th round pick). I'll take Ridley's production at a discount and draft my RB2 in the second round.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs):
He's great. He's great in real life. He's great in fantasy. He's a Super Bowl Champion and MVP. None of that matters to me. Patrick Mahomes will not be on any of my teams this year. As I'll always make clear on AiringItOut.com and in the podcast, I am stubborn in my belief that fantasy owners should wait on quarterbacks in their drafts rather than spending precious draft capital early. The QB position is a one-player roster spot. In other words, you only have to start one player unlike at RB and WR. You should focus on getting depth at these multi-player positions. I get it, players like Mahomes seem to give us an advantage at an important high-scoring position, but the advantage may not always be as good as we think. In 2019, Mahomes was the first QB off the board in most fantasy drafts. However, his points per game average (20.86) was ranked 6th. The 5 QBs in front of him: Lamar Jackson (28.11), Deshaun Watson (22.13), Dak Prescott (21.80), Matthew Stafford (21.45), and Jameis Winston (20.96). Their ADPs in 2019: Jackson - 8.04, Watson - 4.06, Prescott - 11.07, Stafford - 14.09, Winston - 9.09. In addition, Mahomes finished the season 8th in total points (292.04). Every single one of those quarterbacks listed above could've been picked well after Mahomes, allowing for greater depth at positions that need it. And for those reasons...
- JD