In the first installment of my draft series for the 2024 offseason, we'll examine who I see as my personal Top 6 picks for 2024 fantasy drafts! We'll examine the second half of the first round in an upcoming post...
1) Tyreek Hill - I know…you were expecting CMC here. Don’t worry - he’s coming soon - but if there’s one thing the 2023 season finally cemented in my head, it's that we don’t have to be married to the idea of taking a stud running back at the top of the draft. Yes, CMC had a special year and remained healthy, but he’ll be another year older (he’ll turn 28 this offseason) and he handled a massive workload (272 carries - his second-highest total of his career since 2019 as a member of the Panthers) this season. With that said, Hill is my pick at No. 1. The high-powered Dolphins offense centered around him, and when he wasn’t on the field, it was noticeable. His electric speed and ability to get open against anyone - paired with an accurate QB in Tua Tagovailoa - make him as sure of a bet for consistent production as one could hope for. Hill led all WRs with 19.8 fantasy points per game (Half PPR) in 2023.
2) Christian McCaffrey - I’m not going to fault you if you have CMC at No. 1. Keeping him from the top spot is something that didn’t come easy, especially since his 22.4 points per game in half PPR scoring trailed just Josh Allen this season. His 21 total touchdowns were tied for the most with Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert. With that said, his age and usage, paired with his history of injuries, make me hesitate at making him the top selection. It's also important to note that CMC is coming off a year in which he attempted 272 rushes, the highest mark of his career since 2019 when he handled 287 carries as a member of the Panthers. He then went on to play just 10 games over the next two seasons due to ankle, shoulder, glute and hamstring injuries. CMC just turned 28, landing in the feared RB cliff range. Assuming health, he'll be a monster again this season. * Fingers crossed *
3) Ja'Marr Chase - The second receiver that comes off the board for me in the first round is none other than Ja’Marr Chase, entering his fourth season with the Bengals as a proven elite talent in the NFL. Some may see last year as a bit of a down year, but if that was a down year for the former LSU Tiger, then sign me up. Statistically, he was close to top ranks in all major categories. He finished with 145 targets (11th in the league / team leader), 100 catches (11th / team leader), 1,216 yards (12th / team leader and nearly doubling second-best Tee Higgins), and 541 yards after catch (7th / team leader). As far as his team’s target share, he boasted a more-than-solid 26 percent share with the next highest being Higgins with 17 percent of the team’s targets. It’s important to remember that Chase missed a game in 2023 and also played limited snaps in the final weeks, while also missing Joe Burrow for the final seven games of the season due to a season-ending wrist injury. With that said, he still finished 11th in fantasy points amongst receivers with 262.7 points in PPR, as well as 12th in fantasy points per game (16.4). I think Chase gets back to the spark of his rookie season and continues to be the focal point for a Bengals team that could make a playoff push in 2024. You’d be betting on his talent, his situation, and elite quarterback play, all of which are major positives for the 24-year-old wideout.
4) Breece Hall - Call me crazy, but I think there is a real chance that we are looking back at the season in January and wondering why more people didn’t see the “:Breece Hall as the No. 1 finisher at running back” train coming. My interest in ranking him this high in 2024 is based on his talent, situation, and opportunity. I strongly believed this train would come barreling into the station last season, but an Aaron Rodgers Achilles injury did its best to thwart his true breakout season in 2023. However, with Rodgers healthy and ready to lead the Jets, Hall could and should be an top-level fantasy star. Even with horrific backup quarterback play last season, Hall was able to make the most of his chances, finishing the year with 252.5 half PPR points behind just CMC, Raheem Mostert, and Travis Etienne. Hall will eat this season, and with Rodgers steering the ship, defenses will have to respect the passing attack. This will open up running lanes. Additionally, Rodgers also likes to use his running backs in the passing game. An elite QB, and elite defense, and an elite running back – chef’s kiss.
5) Bijan Robinson - There’s a lot of intrigue in this Atlanta Falcons team: the decisions with personnel, the use of star confusing use of players in recent seasons. I think things get on track this season. Enter Kirk Cousins to help right the ship (with Rookie first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. learning behind him). Bijan is a phenomenal running back talent, and last season was a disappointment based on the lofty expectations placed on him by fantasy managers everywhere, especially since he entered an Arthur Smith system that likes to lean on the running game. However, Smith did not see the need to lean too heavily on Robinson, putting a cap on his opportunities. Smith is now in Pittsburgh, and the coaching staff has been praising Robinson this offseason and even talking about a CMC-type role for the back as he enters his sophomore season. With a plethora of offensive skill position talent and a signal caller that can hold his own, defenses won’t be able to stack the box regularly in 2024. A Bijan breakout is on the horizon.
6) CeeDee Lamb - CeeDee was an absolute monster in 2023. Let’s take a look at some of his stats last season:
12 receiving touchdowns (2nd most in the NFL)
2 rushing touchdowns
181 targets (Most in the NFL)
1,749 (2nd most in the NFL and just 50 yards behind Tyreek Hill)
No. 1 in PPR points (403.2)
No. 1 in points per game (23.7)
The Cowboys passing attack was firing on all cylinders last season, and I think there will be more of the same in 2024. The running game should take a step back, as the team lost key offensive linemen and is trotting out the aging Ezekiel Elliott and the generally unproven Rico Dowdle. A lot will rest on the shoulders of Dak Prescott and Lamb to help keep the team competitive. The hold-out situation gives me pause, but I think Jerry and company have made it clear that Lamb is their priority over Dak. It appears they know what they have in Lamb - one of the best receivers in the league - but that they still have reservations about Dak at the number he would command. It’s a big year for Big D, and Lamb should benefit once again.
-JD
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